CRS data, across 12 states which account for over 70% of India's deaths, indicates that India did not witness above-trend deaths during covid first-wave
Nice analysis. I like your writing style and your transparency. A small note - if you take the whole year deaths, you may underestimate the undercounting because of deaths borrowed from a few months later. So, if a wave occurs in July -Sep (say). Many people who die in that wave might have died in Oct - Dec of the same year anyway and they died a few months earlier because of Covid. If I am right, then your estimate of undercounting will be lower when you do it at the end of 2021 (Assuming that there isn't another wave) then it will be if you do it in July. Given that Covid waves may make immediate registration of deaths difficult, it makes sense to take the whole year but then you run into the problem of the borrowed deaths.
Nice analysis. I like your writing style and your transparency. A small note - if you take the whole year deaths, you may underestimate the undercounting because of deaths borrowed from a few months later. So, if a wave occurs in July -Sep (say). Many people who die in that wave might have died in Oct - Dec of the same year anyway and they died a few months earlier because of Covid. If I am right, then your estimate of undercounting will be lower when you do it at the end of 2021 (Assuming that there isn't another wave) then it will be if you do it in July. Given that Covid waves may make immediate registration of deaths difficult, it makes sense to take the whole year but then you run into the problem of the borrowed deaths.