Picture, few words: Encouraging trend in Mumbai 60+
Proportion of 60+ in covid fatalities is declining, likely due to vaccination coverage
BMC publishes daily covid deaths by age. Picture shows percentage of these falling into 60+ age bracket. Note that vaccinations for this age group started on March 1 and as of 3-weeks back (assumed lead time for immunity to kick in), roughly 6-lakh people in 60+ age bracket in Mumbai had received at least one vaccine dose (over 45% coverage).
Declining trend is evident, and while causality is always complicated in messy world, only variable that changed meaningfully is vaccination coverage.
So, how many lives might vaccination have saved? Assume vaccinations haven't (yet) meaningfully impacted severity in 60-minus (since full coverage of 45-59 only started April 1). In end-March, every death in 60-minus saw 3-4x deaths in 60+. Now, it's 1.5x. Had this ratio remained 3-4x, Mumbai would've witnessed additional 50-80 deaths/day. That's just one city, with under 1% of India's population (admittedly, with above-average vaccination coverage)
(Separately, ~95% of Mumbai's covid deaths continue to be among those aged 40+. This validates soundness of our earlier vaccination strategy of targeting 45+. I hope they continue to get priority, as phase 3 starts. I hope even more that they show up.)