Can we assess real-world vaccine efficacy in Indian context?

I believe so. Using healthcare-worker/doctor data.

US, UK and Israel have published evidence of real-world vaccine efficacy, using data on vaccinations done till end-March. Israel indicates 29x higher chance of death in un-vaccinated. US health-worker study confirmed 90% protection from infection after full vax. UK estimates 10,000 lives saved from first 15 million doses. How about India?


This needs large, traceable, high-risk population with sufficient time since vax. This is true of health-care workers in India, specifically doctors. Vax started mid-Jan. For many, it's over a month since second dose. IMA already tracks data (IMA published doctor fatality data, indicating 10x higher case-fatality-rate vs public in first wave). While we can't replicate CDC's real-time tracking of 4000 health-workers, an observational study is doable.


Anecdotal evidence is promising. There have been no reports of doctor deaths in past two months, vs >700 deaths in first wave. India should be able to similarly analyse vaccinations till end-March to draw more systematic inferences of real world vaccine efficacy, in turn addressing vax hesitancy.

IMA? Anyone in public-health?

(Relevant links below)
Israel: https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/real-world-evidence-confirms-high-effectiveness-pfizer

USA: https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/p0329-COVID-19-Vaccines.html#:~:text=A%20new%20CDC%20study%20provides,responders%2C%20and%20other%20essential%20workers

UK: https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-vaccines-have-prevented-10-400-deaths-in-older-adults-public-health-england-says-12270121

India (IMA on doctor covid fatality): https://www.aninews.in/news/business/covid-19-related-deaths-among-doctors-in-india-a-study-of-mortality-data20201005192632/