Can we assess real-world vaccine efficacy in Indian context?
I believe so. Using healthcare-worker/doctor data.
US, UK and Israel have published evidence of real-world vaccine efficacy, using data on vaccinations done till end-March. Israel indicates 29x higher chance of death in un-vaccinated. US health-worker study confirmed 90% protection from infection after full vax. UK estimates 10,000 lives saved from first 15 million doses. How about India?
This needs large, traceable, high-risk population with sufficient time since vax. This is true of health-care workers in India, specifically doctors. Vax started mid-Jan. For many, it's over a month since second dose. IMA already tracks data (IMA published doctor fatality data, indicating 10x higher case-fatality-rate vs public in first wave). While we can't replicate CDC's real-time tracking of 4000 health-workers, an observational study is doable.
Anecdotal evidence is promising. There have been no reports of doctor deaths in past two months, vs >700 deaths in first wave. India should be able to similarly analyse vaccinations till end-March to draw more systematic inferences of real world vaccine efficacy, in turn addressing vax hesitancy.
IMA? Anyone in public-health?
(Relevant links below)
India (IMA on doctor covid fatality): https://www.aninews.in/news/business/covid-19-related-deaths-among-doctors-in-india-a-study-of-mortality-data20201005192632/