Signs we’re in a Bubble

A Friday silly short essay on froth

Commodity super-cycle. Mother of all bull runs. IPO pops. Funny money at new highs. Amidst breathless excitement, I am starting to see bubble references. However, B-word isn’t to be used lightly. It doesn’t merely take excess. It takes absurdity. Last time around, power(point) company listed at $20 billion valuation. Criminality was seen as a competitive advantage, as companies flaunted coal blocks and spectrum. Lowlifes got to egregious valuations on made-up metrics (remember NAV).

Here’s a hypothetical list of absurdities that may give us a clue to a bubble:

·       Ed-tech start-up announces trimester-wise coding classes

·       Ed-tech decacorn acquires above start-up

·       Ashwath Damodaran publishes IPO note using zero cost of capital (or, as he calls it, 0.00%)

·       Hedgies return to punting on commodities, as start-up space is too crowded

·       India’s first Hectocorn becomes a thing on business channels

·       Chamath announces new SPAC to acquire his old SPACs

·       LIC no longer needs to bail out PSU offerings

·       Masa announces early-stage accelerator program: Splurge

·       Bhutta seller on bandstand announces he’ll accept bitcoin

·       Bankers email pitchbooks with QR code on last slide (for instant FOMO relief)

·       Capital gains tax receipts reduce India’s fiscal deficit to zero

·       Tesla renames itself Tesla Platforms