Commodity super-cycle. Mother of all bull runs. IPO pops. Funny money at new highs. Amidst breathless excitement, I am starting to see bubble references. However, B-word isn’t to be used lightly. It doesn’t merely take excess. It takes absurdity. Last time around, power(point) company listed at $20 billion valuation. Criminality was seen as a competitive advantage, as companies flaunted coal blocks and spectrum. Lowlifes got to egregious valuations on made-up metrics (remember NAV).
Here’s a hypothetical list of absurdities that may give us a clue to a bubble:
· Ed-tech start-up announces trimester-wise coding classes
· Ed-tech decacorn acquires above start-up
· Ashwath Damodaran publishes IPO note using zero cost of capital (or, as he calls it, 0.00%)
· Hedgies return to punting on commodities, as start-up space is too crowded
· India’s first Hectocorn becomes a thing on business channels
· Chamath announces new SPAC to acquire his old SPACs
· LIC no longer needs to bail out PSU offerings
· Masa announces early-stage accelerator program: Splurge
· Bhutta seller on bandstand announces he’ll accept bitcoin
· Bankers email pitchbooks with QR code on last slide (for instant FOMO relief)
· Capital gains tax receipts reduce India’s fiscal deficit to zero
· Tesla renames itself Tesla Platforms
If you ever create a Twitter account, it will be an instant hit!
Great writing as usual - i am surprised there are guys in inv banking / PE area who have integrity to make common sense arguments