Unknowable at many levels

Since it's that time of the year when forecasting gains fervour

There are ‘experts’ aplenty. They come in many flavours – economists, strategists, op-ed columnists, fund managers, analysts, podcasters, Kim Kardashians (the kind who are on CNBC because they are famous for being on CNBC). While it’s easy to recognize some as glib grifters, others come across as credible, their theories plausible.

To test if expertise is real or self-proclaimed, let’s conduct a thought experiment. Rewind the clock exactly one year, to December of 2024. Did any of these well-tailored oracles predict the following events of 2025:

· Trade war between the world’s two largest economies.

· 50% tariff imposed by US on India.

· Visa restrictions by US impacting India’s #1 export sector.

· Foreign portfolio investors selling roughly $20 billion of their Indian equity holdings.

· AI’s rapid advancement, from DeepSeek moment to IMO-Gold level intelligence.

· A mini-war closer home, where we struck targets deep inside Pakistan, both terrorist and military (pardon the tautology).

· Above strikes ending in their quick surrender rather than protracted escalation.

· Neighbouring countries imploding into anarchic radicalism.

· Largest personal income tax cut in history, with zero tax upto ₹ 12 lakh per annum.

· Substantial reduction and rationalization of GST rates.

No prizes for guessing that most, if not all, of the above developments were unforeseen. That is to be expected given how messy our world is and how buggy we humans are. However, that isn’t what this essay is about.

Let us add on a second thought experiment to the first. Imagine that there was an expert who foresaw all of the above events in December 2024. Could he have used this superior knowledge to accurately predict consequences? Would he have guessed that:

· Amidst trade war and real war, economy would deliver 8% GDP growth with 2% inflation.

· Amidst visa restrictions and AI explosion, white-collar hiring would stay robust.

· Amidst major tax cuts, fiscal position would remain sound.

· Amidst FPI exodus, Indian stockmarket would end 8-10% higher over 2025.

Herein lies the true unknowability of the messy world around us. It is not just we cannot predict major events. It is that, even if we could, we have no idea how their consequences will play out. It is impossible to reliably unravel a chain of future events in a manner that is useful in real-world decision making.

I used a 2-level thought experiment merely to illustrate that the world is unknowable at many levels. There is no reason to stop at two levels. Cause-and-effect plays out at many more levels, often with feedback loops tying certain consequences back to original events. In fact, in the real world, it is far from clear what the original causes are for whatever transpires around us.

Why table this essay now? It is that time of the year when forecasting becomes fashionable. The aforementioned gaggle of experts come up with “Outlook for 2026” in glossy formatting and fancy accents. This essay is a reminder to attach same importance to such forecasts as to film critics’ review of Dhurandhar. The only forecasts worth reading are the ones made by the same experts a year ago, primarily to enjoy a good laugh.

How to deal with an unknowable world, then? I can only repeat the same unoriginal thoughts that I have belaboured over prior essays. Preparation over prediction. Planning for a range of scenarios over counting on one playing out. Robustness over precision. Margin of safety over modelling. Carrying umbrellas over rain forecasts.

Every December, when I look back at the year gone by, I am surprised at everything that transpired. I didn’t see anything coming. As I look forward to 2026, the only thing I know for sure is that the world will remain unknowable, that too at multiple interconnected levels. I am reminded of a line from a timeless song by Gangai Amaran and Ilaiyaraja – விதி போடும் கோலங்கள் யாருக்கும் புரியாது.

Happy Unknowable New Year.