I think there is an issue of timescales here. The news corporations and social media demand analysis and verdicts on a daily or even hourly timescale. But most patterns in society and economics only become apparent over much longer timescales. There are plenty of historians and economists that do understand this and produce deep, insightful work, even though they still have their biases and blind spots.
There is also the simple issue of the simple material superiority of the West, and this affects almost everyone in the developing world. Students with an interest in natural/hard sciences end up in computer related professions, because thats what the West is paying for right now. Similarly students with an interest in human structures gravitate towards a leftist view, because academia is one of the core bastions of the American left.
Even Kahneman and Tversky would caution that too much reliance on 'reality' would lead to a recentist or WISIATI like bias.
Metaphysically, knowing which world's realities to wake upto is just as big a problem to have. The reality of long term test innings averages I suspect may be more palatable to you than the Runs Per Ball at death of the T-20. Juxtapose the above with an acute sense of where your reality and the world shall meet and where you have an edge and possible Ikigai's start to emerge.
LOL. you really want to tell me that a profession which does not know how to value companies on the stock market is the way everyone should work? intellectual honesty, really? the investment industry is pretty honest isnt it? from one stock bubble to another crisis every decade all apparently gets justified by back dated analysis. the investment industry is built on the greater fool theory and yet it has intellectual honesty :) Being judged by financial metrics does not make a profession better. See the news media. They chase profits and metrics over everything else. what do we get? opinion masquerading as news hacks selling partisan shit. You really want to tell me that fox news right now dissing on vaccines is not the output of a number driven media ecosystem?
A relative of mine was a Sales Rep for a Pharma company in Rajasthan. He and his boss would travel all over the state to meet doctors. They had a rule. Use only taxi drivers who were more than 30 years of age. You could say that they had 'survivor bias' that Kahenman would have approved of. Totally agree with you that most commentary does not require a reality check. But is the purpose of the commentary to educate anyway?
On a podcast, a political journalist from Maharashtra was being interviewed. Enjoyed the talk immensely as the journalist had very interesting stories to tell. There was a moment in the talk however, when the journalist said that BJP underperformed in the last assembly elections and should have won at least 180. The only problem in this statement is that BJP had candidates for lesser number of seats because it was in a coalition with SS in the elections. You could argue that the columnist made a blunder serious enough to bring in question all that they had said before, but I would disagree. Journalists, and most commentators, are entertainers. They should be judged on things like how engaging is their output and what emotions they evoke in us.
Not that I am able to practice what I preach! For example, I get frustrated many a times in sports discussions because I think many people argue without knowing even the basic facts. That is why I prefer to play games like Fantasy Cricket rather than analyse performance of teams or individuals. I have written about it here (https://yogesh-upadhyaya.medium.com/play-fantasy-cricket-this-ipl-2e23134e835a).
One small disagreement. Most doctors are not judged on their results. The human body has marvellous recovery powers and we overcome disease, many a time, in spite of doctors and and not because of them. Additionally, patients consult doctors and do not come back. So doctors do not get feedback on their judgements unlike investment professionals or sportspeople -which is crucial. There are exceptions of course. ICU doctors for example. Many surgeons. But for many doctors, there is no penalty or even awareness for wrong diagnosis. There is a lot of research on this!
I look forward to your post on 2021 Covid mortality estimates.
Everybody is judged by how consistently we deliver or be right. Be it returns or fixing things. The same applies for writers or commentators. Just like investors who aim for short term pops are looked at with a lot of scepticism, those aiming to merely grab eyeballs are exposed in a matter of time. Intellectual dishonesty is not specific to any profession.
I think there is an issue of timescales here. The news corporations and social media demand analysis and verdicts on a daily or even hourly timescale. But most patterns in society and economics only become apparent over much longer timescales. There are plenty of historians and economists that do understand this and produce deep, insightful work, even though they still have their biases and blind spots.
There is also the simple issue of the simple material superiority of the West, and this affects almost everyone in the developing world. Students with an interest in natural/hard sciences end up in computer related professions, because thats what the West is paying for right now. Similarly students with an interest in human structures gravitate towards a leftist view, because academia is one of the core bastions of the American left.
Even Kahneman and Tversky would caution that too much reliance on 'reality' would lead to a recentist or WISIATI like bias.
Metaphysically, knowing which world's realities to wake upto is just as big a problem to have. The reality of long term test innings averages I suspect may be more palatable to you than the Runs Per Ball at death of the T-20. Juxtapose the above with an acute sense of where your reality and the world shall meet and where you have an edge and possible Ikigai's start to emerge.
For keeping his mind agile, Bangur takes CAT each year:
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/magazines/panache/how-does-shree-cement-md-stay-alert-by-playing-volleyball-taking-cat/articleshow/62158199.cms?from=mdr
LOL. you really want to tell me that a profession which does not know how to value companies on the stock market is the way everyone should work? intellectual honesty, really? the investment industry is pretty honest isnt it? from one stock bubble to another crisis every decade all apparently gets justified by back dated analysis. the investment industry is built on the greater fool theory and yet it has intellectual honesty :) Being judged by financial metrics does not make a profession better. See the news media. They chase profits and metrics over everything else. what do we get? opinion masquerading as news hacks selling partisan shit. You really want to tell me that fox news right now dissing on vaccines is not the output of a number driven media ecosystem?
A relative of mine was a Sales Rep for a Pharma company in Rajasthan. He and his boss would travel all over the state to meet doctors. They had a rule. Use only taxi drivers who were more than 30 years of age. You could say that they had 'survivor bias' that Kahenman would have approved of. Totally agree with you that most commentary does not require a reality check. But is the purpose of the commentary to educate anyway?
On a podcast, a political journalist from Maharashtra was being interviewed. Enjoyed the talk immensely as the journalist had very interesting stories to tell. There was a moment in the talk however, when the journalist said that BJP underperformed in the last assembly elections and should have won at least 180. The only problem in this statement is that BJP had candidates for lesser number of seats because it was in a coalition with SS in the elections. You could argue that the columnist made a blunder serious enough to bring in question all that they had said before, but I would disagree. Journalists, and most commentators, are entertainers. They should be judged on things like how engaging is their output and what emotions they evoke in us.
Not that I am able to practice what I preach! For example, I get frustrated many a times in sports discussions because I think many people argue without knowing even the basic facts. That is why I prefer to play games like Fantasy Cricket rather than analyse performance of teams or individuals. I have written about it here (https://yogesh-upadhyaya.medium.com/play-fantasy-cricket-this-ipl-2e23134e835a).
One small disagreement. Most doctors are not judged on their results. The human body has marvellous recovery powers and we overcome disease, many a time, in spite of doctors and and not because of them. Additionally, patients consult doctors and do not come back. So doctors do not get feedback on their judgements unlike investment professionals or sportspeople -which is crucial. There are exceptions of course. ICU doctors for example. Many surgeons. But for many doctors, there is no penalty or even awareness for wrong diagnosis. There is a lot of research on this!
I look forward to your post on 2021 Covid mortality estimates.
Not sure honoring H M Bangur is appropriate, considering minority shareholders have been shortchanged in one of the group companies.
Awesone. Awesome. Anand sir
Everybody is judged by how consistently we deliver or be right. Be it returns or fixing things. The same applies for writers or commentators. Just like investors who aim for short term pops are looked at with a lot of scepticism, those aiming to merely grab eyeballs are exposed in a matter of time. Intellectual dishonesty is not specific to any profession.